posted 19 Dec 2021 22:22, edited 19 Dec 2021 22:22
Policy is lockdown - so they model to drive that policy - staggering
Sage has no molecular virologists, immunologists or intensive care experts ~ but it DOES have 42 behavioural scientists on its committee
19 Dec 2021 23:30
I said they model so they can drive a policy - I guess they want lockdown to stop the spread etc etc
19 Dec 2021 23:33
But as the SAGE guy says in that interview you quoted above they model to drive a decision. If Omicron is not a danger then there isn’t a decision to make (i.e. no additional restrictions required)?
20 Dec 2021 08:55
Yeah I'm not seeing the "policy is lockdown" argument
posted 20 Dec 2021 08:59, edited 20 Dec 2021 08:59
So if we do go into lockdown again…….
Also - whether or not that is the case, is that not bonkers that they are told what to model?
posted 20 Dec 2021 09:18, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:18
Take away my opinion on lockdown - focus on that SAGE model what they are told - shall we all discuss that??
“We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy”
Yeah that’s totally fine
posted 20 Dec 2021 09:26, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:26
SAGE act as an advisory board to the government. obviously the government ask them to model different public health situations they are interested in, to inform their policy development
would you rather they just modelled what they fancied doing instead? monitor migrating birds or something
posted 20 Dec 2021 09:29, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:29
Why are you attacking me?
Again - they are told what to model - as in worst case scenario - politicians then make policy not on best case but worst case scenario as modelled by SAGE.
Taken from BBC right now
Modelling from Sage - scientists who advise the government - puts UK daily deaths at 600 a day at best and 6,000 a day at worse.
I will shut up now as if you don’t see a problem with this then well…..
20 Dec 2021 11:07
I think it makes total sense having sage model on request. The government will want answers to questions, and will ask sage to model to answer those questions. Am I oversimplifying it?
20 Dec 2021 11:17
“What does hospitalisations/deaths look like with a less severe omicron?” seems like a valid question to ask and therefore scenario to model.