General Discussion: Covid


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RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 19 Dec 2021 22:18, edited 19 Dec 2021 22:18
swede wrote:
RickRude wrote: Let’s not mention SAGE modelling is based on narrative told to them by the Tories

do you have a source for that?



https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 19 Dec 2021 22:22, edited 19 Dec 2021 22:22
Policy is lockdown - so they model to drive that policy - staggering

Also

Sage has no molecular virologists, immunologists or intensive care experts ~ but it DOES have 42 behavioural scientists on its committee
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

19 Dec 2021 22:31
nothingelseworked wrote:
TROYBOY wrote: 1 in 100?? That sounds mighty high…

Recorded case fatality rate is officially 1.3% in the UK but it is thought to be higher. That makes it a 1.3 in 100 chance.

Are you genuinely saying you have a 1.3% chance of dying if you catch Covid Laughing out loud
gaffer
gaffer avatar

592 posts since 13/4/05

19 Dec 2021 23:24
RickRude wrote: Policy is lockdown - so they model to drive that policy - staggering

Also

Sage has no molecular virologists, immunologists or intensive care experts ~ but it DOES have 42 behavioural scientists on its committee

You think the gov want lockdowns? Why?
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

19 Dec 2021 23:30
I said they model so they can drive a policy - I guess they want lockdown to stop the spread etc etc
gaffer
gaffer avatar

592 posts since 13/4/05

19 Dec 2021 23:33
But as the SAGE guy says in that interview you quoted above they model to drive a decision. If Omicron is not a danger then there isn’t a decision to make (i.e. no additional restrictions required)?

TROYBOY
TROYBOY avatar

1089 posts since 28/2/12

19 Dec 2021 23:50
nothingelseworked wrote:
TROYBOY wrote: 1 in 100?? That sounds mighty high…

Recorded case fatality rate is officially 1.3% in the UK but it is thought to be higher. That makes it a 1.3 in 100 chance.

oh ok i get ya. that makes more sense. thought you were saying one in 100 will die from the vid19
swede
swede avatar

10371 posts since 21/3/09

20 Dec 2021 07:27
RickRude wrote: Policy is lockdown

is it though? Quite a reach from that article….
Sholto
Sholto avatar

808 posts since 25/12/12

20 Dec 2021 08:55
Yeah I'm not seeing the "policy is lockdown" argument
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 20 Dec 2021 08:59, edited 20 Dec 2021 08:59
So if we do go into lockdown again…….

Also - whether or not that is the case, is that not bonkers that they are told what to model?
themistake
themistake avatar

10865 posts since 20/2/06

20 Dec 2021 09:07
If the policy was lockdown then they wouldn’t be looking to reduce/remove isolation periods.
That is literally the polar opposite of lockdown.
Puzzled
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 20 Dec 2021 09:18, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:18
Take away my opinion on lockdown - focus on that SAGE model what they are told - shall we all discuss that??

“We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy”

Yeah that’s totally fine
swede
swede avatar

10371 posts since 21/3/09

posted 20 Dec 2021 09:26, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:26
SAGE act as an advisory board to the government. obviously the government ask them to model different public health situations they are interested in, to inform their policy development

would you rather they just modelled what they fancied doing instead? monitor migrating birds or something
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 20 Dec 2021 09:29, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:29
Why are you attacking me?

Again - they are told what to model - as in worst case scenario - politicians then make policy not on best case but worst case scenario as modelled by SAGE.

Taken from BBC right now

Modelling from Sage - scientists who advise the government - puts UK daily deaths at 600 a day at best and 6,000 a day at worse.

I will shut up now as if you don’t see a problem with this then well…..

figurine
figurine avatar

6119 posts since 14/5/07

20 Dec 2021 09:32
RickRude wrote: Policy is lockdown - so they model to drive that policy - staggering

Also

Sage has no molecular virologists, immunologists or intensive care experts ~ but it DOES have 42 behavioural scientists on its committee

I Googled the first few people on the list of SAGE participants. Charles Bangham has a PhD in immunology and is co director for the Institute of Infection. Wendy Barclay is a virologist and Head of Department of Infectious Disease and Chair in Influenza Virology at Imperial College London. Johnathon Benger is a professor of emergency care. I got bored after that.
RickRude
RickRude avatar

4116 posts since 13/1/12

posted 20 Dec 2021 09:40, edited 20 Dec 2021 09:40
Was meant to say Had not Has

I stand corrected

At the time we locked down - they had none.

I quoted that from this

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical

Let’s see if we go into another lockdown
swede
swede avatar

10371 posts since 21/3/09

20 Dec 2021 09:42
RickRude wrote: Why are you attacking me?

i'm not - just trying to understand your logic. i still don't but we can leave it at that
swede
swede avatar

10371 posts since 21/3/09

20 Dec 2021 09:42
figurine wrote:
RickRude wrote: Policy is lockdown - so they model to drive that policy - staggering

Also

Sage has no molecular virologists, immunologists or intensive care experts ~ but it DOES have 42 behavioural scientists on its committee

I Googled the first few people on the list of SAGE participants. Charles Bangham has a PhD in immunology and is co director for the Institute of Infection. Wendy Barclay is a virologist and Head of Department of Infectious Disease and Chair in Influenza Virology at Imperial College London. Johnathon Benger is a professor of emergency care. I got bored after that.

ffs Laughing out loud
Sholto
Sholto avatar

808 posts since 25/12/12

20 Dec 2021 11:07
I think it makes total sense having sage model on request. The government will want answers to questions, and will ask sage to model to answer those questions. Am I oversimplifying it?
ChrisAlright
ChrisAlright avatar

1475 posts since 29/6/08

20 Dec 2021 11:17
“What does hospitalisations/deaths look like with a less severe omicron?” seems like a valid question to ask and therefore scenario to model.