General Discussion: Covid


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TROYBOY
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1136 posts since 28/2/12

20 Dec 2021 18:40
As is said, you can prove anything with statistics. Never has that been more true over that past 18 months
MerciBeau
MerciBeau avatar

4447 posts since 7/7/06

20 Dec 2021 19:06
TROYBOY wrote: As is said, you can prove anything with statistics. Never has that been more true over that past 18 months

Only if you're talking to idiots who don't understand them
figurine
figurine avatar

6215 posts since 14/5/07

20 Dec 2021 19:07
gbh-h wrote:
figurine wrote:
gbh-h wrote: isn't the point that worst case sage models are being used to dictate public policy regardless of their probability? look at the disparity between actual outcomes vs. predictions below, and you wonder why so many conflate manipulative governance with good faith science.

https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

Some of these comparisons are a bit dodgy. Take the Vallance Tracker, it says "On 21 September 2020, Sir Patrick Vallance said Covid cases could double to 50,000 a day without further action". On 22nd September restrictions were introduced.

and you think there would've been 50k cases a day but for that? Laughing out loud

i'm totally on board with being cautious and producing worst case scenario forecasts - it's sensible, in fact i wish we did just this last march before letting this run rampant. that said, equally we should acknowledge and call out bollocks numbers that are cooked up to strike a bit of fear into people.

I don't know, but it did get to 25k cases a day within a month with restrictions so I don't think the 50k cases a day seems massively unrealistic.
morning mist
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3704 posts since 29/5/05

20 Dec 2021 19:16
jUsT aSkiNg QuESTioNs is the new I dO mY OWn ReSeaRCH
swede
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10517 posts since 21/3/09

20 Dec 2021 19:39
TROYBOY wrote: As is said, you can prove anything with statistics

Laughing out loud
pentonville
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1066 posts since 12/3/12

20 Dec 2021 22:18
https://youtu.be/4n-UGQcG3Jw
MerciBeau
MerciBeau avatar

4447 posts since 7/7/06

21 Dec 2021 02:03
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/covid-panic-is-a-site-of-inter-elite

This FdB article is probably the best perspective on COVID I've seen.
Rez
Rez avatar

9002 posts since 5/4/09

21 Dec 2021 12:44
really interested in what you find insightful about it, I read it and it seemed like the same old about virtue signalling that you'll find in the spectator and the telegraph, but find replace 'metropolitan elite' with 'pmc'. Don't get me wrong it is kinda true and feels very good to rag on libs and dems being useless, but seems like it's tilting at windmills.

I also think the perspective on only caring about your own personal risk to be a bit naive.

'Your risk calculus might be different, but that’s all it is, a little back-of-the-envelope math. Dealing with Covid is just acting as your own private actuary. That’s it. Your relationship towards Covid and the steps you take to mitigate its risks are fundamentally self-interested decisions that you should try to make as unemotionally as possible. It’s not a mitzvah.'

Your 'risk calculus' will be extremely different if you're caring or living with someone vulnerable or looking after children, or in healthcare or a public facing role. Alright for a blogger to take this libertarian stance where self interest rules, i dunno, seems a bit privileged pmc class to me Laughing out loud
MerciBeau
MerciBeau avatar

4447 posts since 7/7/06

posted 21 Dec 2021 15:53, edited 21 Dec 2021 15:53
Rez wrote: really interested in what you find insightful about it, I read it and it seemed like the same old about virtue signalling that you'll find in the spectator and the telegraph, but find replace 'metropolitan elite' with 'pmc'. Don't get me wrong it is kinda true and feels very good to rag on libs and dems being useless, but seems like it's tilting at windmills.

I also think the perspective on only caring about your own personal risk to be a bit naive.

'Your risk calculus might be different, but that’s all it is, a little back-of-the-envelope math. Dealing with Covid is just acting as your own private actuary. That’s it. Your relationship towards Covid and the steps you take to mitigate its risks are fundamentally self-interested decisions that you should try to make as unemotionally as possible. It’s not a mitzvah.'

Your 'risk calculus' will be extremely different if you're caring or living with someone vulnerable or looking after children, or in healthcare or a public facing role. Alright for a blogger to take this libertarian stance where self interest rules, i dunno, seems a bit privileged pmc class to me Laughing out loud

Few points that i liked:

1: The taboos around speaking to Obesity and Age as risk factors.
2: The predisposition of, for want of a better term 'Twitter Dickheads' towards catastrophizing around issues because it makes them feel morally superior. + How that predisposition stems from the education system.
3: The way that cases has been decoupled from deaths and hospitalisations in the reporting and strategising around COVID fuels the hysteria.

You make a dead good point about how the risk calculus thing smacks of a kind of privilege.

The thing that most resonated for me though was the point FdB makes around how believing in the efficacy of vaccines to the extent that you see them as a signal for life to be able to resume is almost construed as being an 'anti-vaxxer' type position to take.

On your first para about raging on libs and dems, yeah it is true, and yeah it does feel good. But saying that, I don't think it's tilting at windmills - what gets called 'virtue signaling' is a kind of cultural pathogen that exploits people inclined towards personality disorders, and it's something that is extremely dangerous for society. I'm in the US and talk to these kind of people on the reg and its like dealing with members of a cult, they're immune to logic, nuance, or reason and they will steer any conversation towards an issue they can purity test on, last month it was Rittenhouse, this month its Omnicron wave, next month it will be a year from the Jan 6th boomer LARP and that'll be the thing I guarantee. On any issue they bring up they're dutifully hunting for evidence that you commit the sin of thinking for yourself or might have a viewpoint that deviates, no matter how marginally, from the orthodox NPC software patching they receive from the news and the group-think of Twitter.

I'm getting off topic - but yeah - the issue is that in spite of cloaking themselves in the terminology of 'tolerance' and 'liberal' they actually prize conformity of thought to a terrifying degree, and FdB piece linking that through COVID back to the education system that instills a competitive conformity into people I thought was great.

edit: To add, there's a reason that lit like The Crucible, The Lottery by Shirley Jackson, and The Scarlett Letter resonate so much as works of American Culture… Look at The Salem Witch Trials, McCarthyism, Satanic Panic, and 'Wokeness' today. For a shitty metaphor, American culture is inclined to a kind of auto-immune disorder where it attacks its own cells, and though-out its history that's manifested itself in moral panics etc.
Crackajack
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8200 posts since 21/4/05

posted 21 Dec 2021 16:16, edited 21 Dec 2021 16:16
The individual risk calculus thing would be true if this wasn't an airborne infectious disease that you can give someone else by breathing, and where the person in the shop, driving the bus or otherwise helping you enjoy your freedoms may be facing a choice between going to work, being exposed and going hungry.

It's an extremely obvious example of the need for a societal view which trumps the autonomy of individuals, which is probably awkward to the author and so they kind of miss the point.
MerciBeau
MerciBeau avatar

4447 posts since 7/7/06

21 Dec 2021 16:33
Crackajack wrote: The individual risk calculus thing would be true if this wasn't an airborne infectious disease that you can give someone else by breathing, and where the person in the shop, driving the bus or otherwise helping you enjoy your freedoms may be facing a choice between going to work, being exposed and going hungry.

It's an extremely obvious example of the need for a societal view which trumps the autonomy of individuals, which is probably awkward to the author and so they kind of miss the point.

Isn't the societal response to get vaccinated and wear masks on public transport, show negative results before traveling, etc? Why does there need to be hysterics? Once you've been vaccinated you've done your bit.
mtthrvy2
mtthrvy2 avatar

1988 posts since 8/11/10

21 Dec 2021 18:13
MerciBeau wrote: Isn't the societal response to get vaccinated and wear masks on public transport, show negative results before traveling, etc? Why does there need to be hysterics? Once you've been vaccinated you've done your bit.

If it were that simple!

How you've described it is how it should be, for the most part. However, we have anti vaxers, people who think wearing a mask is attacking their freedoms and people who have just never even bothered taking a lateral flow.

37% have taken a lat flow in last 7 days
20% have never taken a lateral flow

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/3december2021
spitfiredealer
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2596 posts since 12/6/10

21 Dec 2021 18:28
how often are people taking lateral flows?

snaye
snaye avatar

11111 posts since 24/10/02

21 Dec 2021 19:05
Lateral flow tests rarer than jjjjound New Balance at the moment
MerciBeau
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4447 posts since 7/7/06

21 Dec 2021 19:21
mtthrvy2 wrote:
MerciBeau wrote: Isn't the societal response to get vaccinated and wear masks on public transport, show negative results before traveling, etc? Why does there need to be hysterics? Once you've been vaccinated you've done your bit.

If it were that simple!

How you've described it is how it should be, for the most part. However, we have anti vaxers, people who think wearing a mask is attacking their freedoms and people who have just never even bothered taking a lateral flow.

37% have taken a lat flow in last 7 days
20% have never taken a lateral flow

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/3december2021

This is my point, those people are a tiny minority of total idiots, why give them air time or make them out to be some kind of social boogeyman? Just let them die off - it's exactly how evolution works.
menace
menace avatar

1131 posts since 3/5/12

22 Dec 2021 00:31
booster has absolutely done me in last night. up all night with cold sweats, fever, mad aches all over my body. Paracetamol sorted me eventually but blown away by how bad it was
-DiscoTits-
-DiscoTits- avatar

1001 posts since 26/11/07

22 Dec 2021 07:14
What did you get? I ended up with myocarditis with the second dose of Moderna. I am very nervous about getting a booster now as I still am not feeling right. I’ve been told I might well be able to ask for the Pfizer instead. No doubt these vaccines work for reducing chances of death and help to reduce SOME transmission but there’s definite issues with these MRNA ones. Not trying to put anyone off but it does need said.
ODB
ODB avatar

3628 posts since 21/6/06

22 Dec 2021 07:22
Sad Had 2x AZ, Pfizer booster yesterday and its kicked fuk out me

swede
swede avatar

10517 posts since 21/3/09

22 Dec 2021 08:16
-DiscoTits- wrote: I ended up with myocarditis with the second dose of Moderna

wow that is super unfortunate. i am pretty sure you will be able to request pfizer or az in light of that
Anto
Anto avatar

4111 posts since 19/1/12

22 Dec 2021 08:35
Had my booster on Monday, they only had Moderna, which here in Italy is half dose for the booster, after having two Pfizer before.

Monday was ok, woke up yesterday with arm pain and felt pretty tired throughout the day, some headache too, but no fever, mad aches, sweats etc, same effetcts I had with Pfizer.
Today arm is ok, feel better already, but I've got some pain around my armpit which I've never had before.

Was a bit worried going with Moderna because many on here had bad side effects with it, but so far so good