16 May 2020 06:03
You should play a bit nicer or they'll leave it all to the wallaby sanctuary.
16 May 2020 06:36
Australian probate laws ensure I'll get mine
posted 17 May 2020 07:52, edited 17 May 2020 07:52
You don't know anything, You only view blinkered left wing media. You and those like you will feel the pain when Trump wins another historic election in November. The media, the illuminati, the democrat propaganda machnine can't keep Trump down. .like Monkey he is IRREPRESSABLE!
HHAHHAHAHAH, SUFFER YOU ELITIST LEFT WING FAGGOT
17 May 2020 07:57
Ah yes, the FT, that notorious left wing rag
17 May 2020 12:32
I think everyone knows Donny wins in November and I’ve said as much. That’s independent of whether he’s handled this in the best way for the US. Or at least in my simple mind it is.
17 May 2020 12:39
Since all this began, I've taken 4 days off and then went back to work as normal.
I contract to a few care homes which need constant work, communal areas of blocks of flats/offices and also work inside the homes of people that are happy for me to do so.
I take as many precautions as I can, but other than that its been life as normal for me.
I'm not worried about getting the virus, but am worried for my parents, elderly relatives and in laws.
For this reason only I haven't spent as much time with them, and when I have seen them, its been garden visits and kept my distance for fear of anything happening to them.
Obviously this isn't the case for everyone, my Mrs is WFH and getting tired of it, goes for long walks to help break up the day.
To add, my brother is a Doctor at St Thomas and has said it was manic at the beginning because they had no idea what they were dealing with, but now they do, its being handled a lot better and proper processes are in place.
The lockdown has slowed the rate of infection/death some part, and my opinion is if we lift the lockdown and use common sense, we will be fine.
That being said, common sense isn't so common unfortunately, so its not as easy to implement as it may seem.
17 May 2020 15:31
I've not read all of these links but taking the Armstrong Economics one as an example.
It's a bit of a strawman to target the script rather than the way the script addresses its aim.
The criticism about the stochastic approach is sort of unwarranted.
From an epidemiology perspective, it is good practice to 'presume' a random distribution unless you are certain about the direction of effect [i.e the precise direction and pattern of transmission rates and independent variables].
This leads to conservative estimates [which might be overstated] but can then be interpreted and run against 'best' case and 'worst' case thresholds.
The alternative to this 'presumption' is to presume a non-random direction of transmission effects, which you can't do without sufficient empirical evidence and at the point that the Ferguson model was developed, I don't think that was present [at least for scientific research standards].
This in its own right is a presumption and one that you'd get much more flack for in epidemiological research; making an unwarranted claim.
The second thing is that it seems a bit of a duff argument to critique the subsequent heterogeneity in results/ variance because it quite possibly comes from the random distribution model applied, which has good reason.
It's also not necessarily a problem that the code is unsophisticated. Whilst the variables of transmission, in their own right, can be complex, intuitively there's likely to many more unmeasurable variables in economic modelling that require much more sophisticated software to account for.
Moreover, transmission variables have their own existing software/ statistical methods that are independent to the Ferguson model and the impression that I get is that they are 'plugged'.
Who knows though, I don't really know the ins and outs. Also, maybe that article went over my head. Seems like people want to scapegoat the Ferguson model for the present state of things.
17 May 2020 21:37
Reassuring they got John Carmack to look at the code refactoring for the public release / V&V.
The government will need something in the blame game, unfortunately this is just another by “one thing wrong, everything is wrong” destruction of experts in the public perception.
18 May 2020 12:08
It wasn't out of choice, but companies I contract out to halted work until they had confirmation of what they can and can't do.
Government over here have been very vague with their guidelines and when released, usually takes a few days to decipher them!