General Discussion: Gambling thread


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fudge.dredd
fudge.dredd avatar

1258 posts since 15/12/12

posted 6 Apr 2020 22:25, edited 6 Apr 2020 22:25
smith wrote: Only have to look at Italy or Spain to see that by just being late to the lockdown party , thousands more deaths would arise. No lockdown would see over a million deaths a year. It's simple maths when you see over 500 deaths on a daily basis for an extended period of time during lockdown periods to bring the number down.

Ok I’m going to do this nice and slowly so you understand. Are you ready to be schooled? Pens out.

Italy has a huge elderly population and the some of the worst air pollution in Europe.

https://www.thelocal.it/20151230/italy-highest-in-eu-for-pollution-linked-deaths

An average of 25% of the population are prevalent smokers too. So a combination of older population, air pollution and years of lung damage could easily have caused more deaths than other countries, not to mention the large amount of Chinese workers that died initially in the North.

There is also a large percentage of the population that have 3 or more generations living in the same house. So elderly people living with younger ones thy could easily pass on COVID, especially children who seem to carry and pass it on without being affected by it.

There’s also been a very mild winter - unusually warm weather kills less elderly people than usual. So those that survived could easily have died of COVID later.

Translate and read if you so wish:

http://www.epiprev.it/andamento-della-mortalità-giornaliera-sismg-nelle-città-italiane-relazione-all’epidemia-di-covid-19

So what happened when the deaths started? Most of the Eastern European nurses who worked in care fled back home as talks of lockdown and border closures began. So there was a distinct lack of carers. This caused overloading in hospitals.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

And also as Italy closed all its schools early, most parents were either leaving their kids with elderly relatives (potentially passing on the virus) or taking time off work, including doctors and nurses.

There is no hard evidence that locking down the population helps in any way, shape or form.

One day the truth will out.




morning mist
morning mist avatar

3286 posts since 29/5/05

6 Apr 2020 23:34
fudge.dredd wrote: *sigh’

Ok OFFICE OF NATIONAL STATISTICS.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final


In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.

The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976.

During the winter months of 2017 to 2018, the number of daily deaths exceeded the daily five-year average for all days except 25 March.

Excess winter mortality in 2017 to 2018 significantly increased from 2016 to 2017 in all English regions and Wales, with Wales having the highest regional index.

Excess winter mortality continued to be highest in females and people aged 85 and over.

Excess winter mortality doubled among males aged 0 to 64 years between 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018.
Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.



Just like COVID the data will always be skewed but there will be many many deaths that would have occurred anyway, whether COVID came round or not.

Like the amount of men who die WITH prostate cancer, not OF it.

Simple distinction but it’ll all come out in the wash once the economy is trashed and we’re repaying it for the next decade plus via increased taxes and pillaged pensions.

40.000 people didn't die because of "the beast from the east",

"Colder than average temperatures for the winter months of 2017 to 2018 may partially explain the increase in winter deaths. However, previous years demonstrate a weak relationship between temperature and EWD."

or from another source,

"…there was no relationship between winter severity and annual excess winter deaths…" - source



fudge.dredd
fudge.dredd avatar

1258 posts since 15/12/12

posted 7 Apr 2020 00:30, edited 7 Apr 2020 00:30
morning mist wrote:
fudge.dredd wrote: *sigh’

Ok OFFICE OF NATIONAL STATISTICS.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final


In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.

The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976.

During the winter months of 2017 to 2018, the number of daily deaths exceeded the daily five-year average for all days except 25 March.

Excess winter mortality in 2017 to 2018 significantly increased from 2016 to 2017 in all English regions and Wales, with Wales having the highest regional index.

Excess winter mortality continued to be highest in females and people aged 85 and over.

Excess winter mortality doubled among males aged 0 to 64 years between 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018.
Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.



Just like COVID the data will always be skewed but there will be many many deaths that would have occurred anyway, whether COVID came round or not.

Like the amount of men who die WITH prostate cancer, not OF it.

Simple distinction but it’ll all come out in the wash once the economy is trashed and we’re repaying it for the next decade plus via increased taxes and pillaged pensions.

40.000 people didn't die because of "the beast from the east",

"Colder than average temperatures for the winter months of 2017 to 2018 may partially explain the increase in winter deaths. However, previous years demonstrate a weak relationship between temperature and EWD."

or from another source,

"…there was no relationship between winter severity and annual excess winter deaths…" - source

Oh so now you can differentiate between the deaths?

So has COVID caused the 4000 plus deaths in the UK? Solely?

And the link I gave you was from the actual office of national statistics, not some other site that can put a spin on it. What did I actually quote?

“ In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales”

Explain these extra deaths please?

You’re very good at telling me what didn’t cause the deaths, so what did?

50,000 excess deaths isn’t to be…… sneezed at….. Excuse the pun.
fudge.dredd
fudge.dredd avatar

1258 posts since 15/12/12

posted 7 Apr 2020 01:31, edited 7 Apr 2020 01:31
Oh and interestingly while I’m on the subject of Italy..

’..Only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said the scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health last week..’

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

Let that sink in.


Just in case you can’t see that article:

But different countries are also reporting cases and deaths in different ways: in Italy, Covid-19 is listed as the cause of death even if a patient was already ill and died from a combination of illnesses.

“Only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said the scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health last week.

Spain’s national government simply lists how many people with confirmed cases of coronavirus have died and provides no extra information on any other medical conditions.

In South Korea, which has a younger population than Italy, about a third of confirmed cases were in people aged 30 or under: 152 people have died so far out of 9,583 infections, giving a mortality rate of 1.6 per cent.

In Germany, which has recorded 455 deaths, the majority of infections have occurred in people aged 15 to 59. Based on the available data, the country’s death rate is about 0.8 per cent, but this may also reflect its aggressive approach to testing people with milder symptoms.



figurine
figurine avatar

5850 posts since 14/5/07

7 Apr 2020 06:56
fudge.dredd wrote: Explain these extra deaths please

There's excess winter deaths every winter, this isn't difficult fudge. You literally made up that 40k died due to beast from the east, backed it up with an ONS link that says there were 50k excess winter deaths but doesn't mention beast from the east at all and you're now asking for people to disprove your nonexistent theory. Trumpian I think is the word.
fudge.dredd
fudge.dredd avatar

1258 posts since 15/12/12

posted 7 Apr 2020 08:04, edited 7 Apr 2020 08:04
figurine wrote:
fudge.dredd wrote: Explain these extra deaths please

There's excess winter deaths every winter, this isn't difficult fudge. You literally made up that 40k died due to beast from the east, backed it up with an ONS link that says there were 50k excess winter deaths but doesn't mention beast from the east at all and you're now asking for people to disprove your nonexistent theory. Trumpian I think is the word.

Wow you are literally too stupid to explain anything to.

The EXCESS winter deaths I linked you to were from 2018. The SAME year as when the BFTE occurred, correct?

I removed 10k deaths for the sake of it, but how is this a theory?

Explain to me please what could have possibly caused an extra 40-50k deaths without saying they happen all the time. If they did, they wouldn’t be called EXCESS.

Fuckin’ hell. Did you ever go to school?
figurine
figurine avatar

5850 posts since 14/5/07

7 Apr 2020 08:33
“The number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976. However, peaks like these are not unusual – we have seen more than eight peaks during the last 40 years. It is likely that last winter’s increase was due to the predominant strain of flu, the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine and below-average winter temperatures”.

From the ONS website. Excess refers to the difference between the period before and after. There were 44k excess deaths in 14/15, how are you saying 40k were can be solely attributed to BFTE. I honestly just think you're trolling now, noone is this dumb while attempting to call other people stupid aside from MLI of course.
Anto
Anto avatar

3767 posts since 19/1/12

7 Apr 2020 09:18
fudge.dredd wrote:
smith wrote: Only have to look at Italy or Spain to see that by just being late to the lockdown party , thousands more deaths would arise. No lockdown would see over a million deaths a year. It's simple maths when you see over 500 deaths on a daily basis for an extended period of time during lockdown periods to bring the number down.

Ok I’m going to do this nice and slowly so you understand. Are you ready to be schooled? Pens out.

Italy has a huge elderly population and the some of the worst air pollution in Europe.

https://www.thelocal.it/20151230/italy-highest-in-eu-for-pollution-linked-deaths

An average of 25% of the population are prevalent smokers too. So a combination of older population, air pollution and years of lung damage could easily have caused more deaths than other countries, not to mention the large amount of Chinese workers that died initially in the North.

Again with this story of dead Chinese. This is not true, I've already tried to tell you, but you just showed a map, which apart making us laugh a lot, shows only that regions with most cases are also those where most Chinese live. Those FYI are the most densely populated, rich and industrialised regions, but there's no evidence that in those regions many Chinese died.
The article you posted in reply to my comment just showed how Prato is now almost entirely Chinese.

fudge.dredd wrote: So what happened when the deaths started? Most of the Eastern European nurses who worked in care fled back home as talks of lockdown and border closures began. So there was a distinct lack of carers. This caused overloading in hospitals.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Briefly going through that blog you posted, that part you quoted\elaborated is one of the few which hasn't a link to a video, document, article, whatever…in fact it didn't happen…

fudge.dredd wrote: And also as Italy closed all its schools early, most parents were either leaving their kids with elderly relatives (potentially passing on the virus) or taking time off work, including doctors and nurses.

I can assure you that once deaths started, and it was clear that it was affecting elderly in particular, the recommendation, and what people did, was to not leave kids with elderly relatives, as well as to not visit elderly relatives\parents.
Also, as soon as schools closed, most companies were already letting people, at least one parent, wfh for taking care of kids.

morning mist
morning mist avatar

3286 posts since 29/5/05

posted 7 Apr 2020 09:23, edited 7 Apr 2020 09:23
fudge.dredd wrote:
morning mist wrote:
fudge.dredd wrote: *sigh’

Ok OFFICE OF NATIONAL STATISTICS.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final


In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.

The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976.

During the winter months of 2017 to 2018, the number of daily deaths exceeded the daily five-year average for all days except 25 March.

Excess winter mortality in 2017 to 2018 significantly increased from 2016 to 2017 in all English regions and Wales, with Wales having the highest regional index.

Excess winter mortality continued to be highest in females and people aged 85 and over.

Excess winter mortality doubled among males aged 0 to 64 years between 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018.
Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.



Just like COVID the data will always be skewed but there will be many many deaths that would have occurred anyway, whether COVID came round or not.

Like the amount of men who die WITH prostate cancer, not OF it.

Simple distinction but it’ll all come out in the wash once the economy is trashed and we’re repaying it for the next decade plus via increased taxes and pillaged pensions.

40.000 people didn't die because of "the beast from the east",

"Colder than average temperatures for the winter months of 2017 to 2018 may partially explain the increase in winter deaths. However, previous years demonstrate a weak relationship between temperature and EWD."

or from another source,

"…there was no relationship between winter severity and annual excess winter deaths…" - source

Oh so now you can differentiate between the deaths?

So has COVID caused the 4000 plus deaths in the UK? Solely?

And the link I gave you was from the actual office of national statistics, not some other site that can put a spin on it. What did I actually quote?

“ In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales”

Explain these extra deaths please?

You’re very good at telling me what didn’t cause the deaths, so what did?

50,000 excess deaths isn’t to be…… sneezed at….. Excuse the pun.

The first quote i used is from YOUR source/link (Office of national statistics) and it directly contradicts your own argument.


fudge.dredd wrote: Explain these extra deaths please?
fudge.dredd wrote: Explain to me please what could have possibly caused an extra 40-50k deaths without saying they happen all the time. If they did, they wouldn’t be called EXCESS.

Fuckin’ hell. Did you ever go to school?

EWD is a way to compare the number of deaths during the winter months versus during the rest of the year, because more people ALWAYS die during the winter months. That is what "excess" means in this context, not "extra" deaths compared to other winters or years.
smith
smith avatar

10903 posts since 5/5/04

7 Apr 2020 10:30
fudge.dredd wrote:
smith wrote: Only have to look at Italy or Spain to see that by just being late to the lockdown party , thousands more deaths would arise. No lockdown would see over a million deaths a year. It's simple maths when you see over 500 deaths on a daily basis for an extended period of time during lockdown periods to bring the number down.

Ok I’m going to do this nice and slowly so you understand. Are you ready to be schooled? Pens out.

Fascinating read. Thanks.


As you love excess death stats so much thought you'd appreciate this article. Lots of excess deaths for you to link Italy with big storm Corona.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lbsbusinessstrategyreview/2020/04/06/how-many-people-have-really-died-from-covid-19/#18fec9c767f7
TROYBOY
TROYBOY avatar

655 posts since 28/2/12

7 Apr 2020 10:41
is this the gambling thread still??
phelen
phelen avatar

6484 posts since 16/8/06

7 Apr 2020 13:10
TROYBOY wrote: is this the gambling thread still??

Gambling you're sanity with Fudge count?
nothingelseworked
nothingelseworked avatar

3509 posts since 21/2/10

7 Apr 2020 13:28
figurine wrote: I honestly just think you're trolling now, noone is this dumb while attempting to call other people stupid aside from MLI of course.

I've been wondering this for ages. Are we sure fudge's posts aren't a performance piece? Because I want to believe no one can be this dense.